The world teeters on the edge of economic crisis. The main question now seems to be how big and how long. Numerous financial experts warn of a Great Depression repeat. But surviving the next Great Depression won’t be so easy. Last time, few people had money, but if they did, for the most part there was food available. This time, the depression may well be accompanied by widespread food shortages. As the Japanese are coming to realize, when there is no food, the value of money rapidly approaches zero.
Many economic analysts clearly see the economic problems facing America: the crashing housing market, insolvent banks, massive monetary inflation, the devaluing dollar, falling real wages, rising food and oil prices, and so on. Many also see the danger in the global food shortages. But at the same time, it is amazing how many think that all you need to do is invest in gold, or silver, or buy some agricultural commodity stocks, and you will be okay.
There is a fatal flaw in this thinking. Yes, as the United States continues to unravel, the price of gold may temporarily soar into the stratosphere. But no matter how many gold coins you have, if food supplies run out, bars of gold won’t quell the hunger pains. You can’t eat gold.
TheAge.com reports that Kazakhstan, the world’s fifth-biggest wheat exporter, is the latest major country to prohibit grain exports. If Kazakhstan were alone, it might not be a big deal—but unfortunately Kazakhstan is joining a growing list of other countries, including Russia, Ukraine and Argentina, that are also limiting wheat exports.
At the same time, America’s wheat stockpile is at dangerously low levels—levels not seen in over 60 years. And 60 years ago, America had a population of less than 150 million. That figure has more than doubled since that time.
The Department of Agriculture says that in the year ending May 31, U.S. wheat inventories could be down 47 percent to 6.6 million tons. That means there is a U.S. emergency wheat reserve supply of only about 43 pounds per person.
Expecting record-low food reserves to provide for record-high populations is asking for record-breaking hunger.
But wheat is only one of many foods in short supply; rice, corn and other agricultural commodities are near multi-decade lows too. All it would take is one bad global harvest and America, along with the rest of the world, would be in big trouble. Just one bad year! We had seven of them in a row during the 1930s.
It wouldn’t matter how much money a person had; money can’t buy what doesn’t exist.
Take Japan for example.
Japan is the world’s largest net food importer. The nation imports 86 percent of its wheat and approximately 60 percent of its daily food requirements.
Japan’s problems began when countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and China imposed export curbs on rice to conserve food for domestic populations. Then Japan got hit again when global shortfalls in cattle feed led to a butter shortage, and again when global wheat prices went through the roof.
Food shortages have intensified to the point that, as Bloomberg reports, Japan will ask the World Trade Organization (wto) to introduce rules to prevent countries from restricting exports of wheat, rice and other grains. Japan may be about to find out that wto rules don’t mean much when people are at risk of starvation.
The shortages have come as quite a shock to many Japanese who, like Americans, are accustomed to being able to buy whatever they want as long as they have the money. “Until now Japan could rely on purchasing food from anywhere in the world because consumers can afford to pay,” relates Yasuhiko Nakamura, head of the government’s food education council. “In the future, it may be impossible to import even if we have money” (emphasis mine throughout).
There is nothing like a food shortage to wake up a nation.
Obviously, America isn’t Japan—we don’t import two thirds of our food. But we are much more vulnerable than many realize.
In 2005, the Wall Street Journal reported that America had become a net importer of food. Bill Bonner, writing for the Daily Reckoning, confirms: “If we understand that correctly, there is no longer enough food Made in the USA to feed Americans’ appetites” (February 25). That means that even if America cut all exports, it would still need to import food to maintain current consumption levels.
America used to be the world’s breadbasket. Now, as is the case in just about every other former category of production, America is becoming a gigantic food-consumption sinkhole.
“[O]utsourcing your supply of food and water … depending on unfriendly or unreliable trading partners to keep sending fresh fruit and poultry … or thinking the global system of trade will forever expand and never again contract … these are all dangerous assumptions that could leave you with an empty national stomach at night,” warns the Daily Reckoning (ibid.).
Yet for the most part, Americans remain on the sidelines of the current food shortages—at least so far. Besides some comparatively minor rice and cooking oil rationing at a few Costcos and Sam’s Clubs, most Americans are content to grumble about rising food and fuel prices and watch the food riots in Haiti, Indonesia, and elsewhere—so far.
But the fact that there is rationing at all should be a big wake-up call!
“Living in the ‘Breadbasket of the World,’ it is hard for most Americans to even conceive of the idea that food could become scarce in this country,” writes author Monica Davis. Even America, she says, “is not immune from the potential for food shortages, food riots and food insecurity. We’re just blind to the possibility.”
America’s days of comparative economic prosperity are ending. Most Americans look at the world and think that they are rich and increased with goods, and in need of nothing. But they don’t realize that all that separates the U.S. from becoming poor, destitute and hungry is one big drought. What good will riches be then?
America only has 43 pounds of wheat per person in case of emergency. That’s just four and a half months’ worth.
A page out of the Bible is applicable here: Joseph, when he was in Egypt, prepared the nation to withstand seven years of drought. When drought came, not only did Egypt have food for its entire population, but for the surrounding nations as well. In that case, money bought food—because Joseph had stored it up. In fact, that drought made Egypt a global power.
Today, the world lives from one harvest to the next. There are no significant global food reserves, and America doesn’t even have enough to handle one really bad year. What would happen if another multi-year, 1930s-style drought occurred again?
“Load up the pantry,” says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street’s leading investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. “I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn’t going to happen here. But I don’t know how the food companies can absorb higher costs.”
Unfortunately, loading up the pantry isn’t more than a short-term stop-gap. And in the long-term, neither is stockpiling treasure chests of precious metals.
The Bible talks of a future time when people will throw their gold and silver into the streets—a time when money won’t be able to buy food (Ezekiel 7:19).
The current global food shortages are the first rumbles of thunder from the approaching storm.
But shelter from the coming food storm can be found. God promises to not only protect those who obey Him, but to bless and magnify their food supplies even when everyone else is being pummeled with agricultural curses. God challenges you to test Him—to see if He will not open to you the windows of heaven in time of need.
To see how a country with such vast agricultural resources could get itself into such a food dilemma, read The United States and Britain in Prophecy.
Comments