Attack on Iran: Rift in the Military and the Role of Commandos
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 7/19/2009
The
targets for Israel's attack on Iran have been chosen: one is close to
the sea, the other is inland. Members of Sayeret Matka"l are now
conducting joint (often nightly) exercises with Israel's Navy SEALS
(the "Shayetet") off the coast of Ashkelon and on the beaches of Haifa.
While the deployment of the commandos and other ground forces will be
done mostly by air, their evacuation, 4-6 hours later, will be
accomplished by sea.
The role of the commandoes was re-defined
last week to exclude the kidnapping of Iranian scientists. This change
in operational goals followed a row among the upper echelons of
Israel's military and intelligence community. Now, Israel's elite
warriors are merely to return with soil samples and equipment from the
facilities in the wake of the aerial bombardment. They are also to mine
the area and to detonate explosives in sensitive locations. They are to
avoid Iranian losses of life and collateral damage. Two Mossad A-Teams
are already in operation inside Iran, close to the coast, having been
deployed there by a submarine last week.
Faced with what it
regards as an existential threat, Israel is reviving old and dormant
intelligence networks and assets worldwide. Erstwhile members of the
Lishka le-Kishre Mada (Laka"m, headed in the 1980s by Rafi "The
Stinker" Eitan), or the "Bureau for Scientific Contacts" of Pollard
infamy, were recently called to duty. They are working closely with
physicists from the Weitzman Institute, the Technion, and Tel-Aviv and
Beer-Sheba Universities. These combined team of seasoned intelligence
operatives and top-level scientists have spent the last two weeks
briefing the commando units in their base of operations near Eilat and
in the nuclear reactor in Dimona.
Prominent members of the
Israeli government, the Headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces, and
the intelligence community are against any military operation in Iran.
They believe any such a move would be tantamount to geopolitical and,
in the long-term, physical suicide. But they are in the minority. The
majority of decision-makers are siding with Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu who is pressing for an early military resolution of the
problem.
Yet, the very phrase "military solution" is an
oxymoron, claim his critics. Iran's nuclear program is spread over 60
sites, some of them deep inland. Redundancy is high and there is no way
to take Iran's nuclear capacity out as was done in Iraq in 1981 and in
Syria, lately. Better to wait for political change and voluntary
disarmament as happened in Libya, they insist.
Attack on Iran to Include Ground Forces
July 16, 2009
An
eventual attack on Iran may include ground forces. Units of Sayeret
Matka"l ("Headquarters Scouts", Israel's elite special forces) have
been transferred to the mock in Biq'at Hayareach ("Moon Vale"), not far
from Eilat. They have spent the last few weeks training there:
parachuting, paragliding, urban warfare (laba"b in Hebrew), and hand to
hand combat. Special emphasis is placed on explosives. The area is
isolated (it got its name from its eerie similarity to the moonscape),
but various civilian suppliers have reported massive explosions during
the day.
In my previous article, titled "Preparations for Attack
in Iran Almost Complete" (dated July 10), I revealed the existence of
the training mock near Eilat and Aqaba by the Red Sea. A few days
later, Israel made the presence of its Navy in the Red Sea public.
Though it has not been a secret hitherto, it has hardly been trumpeted.
The navy's role is support the mission with sea-launched precision
cruise missiles (of Israeli manufacture). In general, Israel is trying
to minimize the involvement of American materiel in its forthcoming
foray into Iran.
One word about the "windows" mentioned in my
earlier article. As any military planner and intelligence agent knows,
these are not actual operational dates. "Windows" are possible
operational dates and are dictated by the confluence of weather
projections, known troop movements, political and geopolitical
circumstances, and military preparedness. Additional windows exist in
September and October this year (I have the dates). It is likely,
therefore, that Israel will attack in July or August, but no later than
October this year.
Preparations for Attack on Iran Almost Complete
By: Sam Vaknin
July 10, 2009
Late
last year, Israel embarked on a coordinated campaign of leaks to the
press regarding its determination to take out Iran's nuclear facilities
if Obama's then-new administration fails to sway the Iranians
diplomatically. Israel is unwilling to accept a nuclear Iran: "It is
not an option", say its senior intelligence and military leadership.
On
January 20, 2009, I appeared as a guest in the most popular political
affairs program in Macedonia ("Glasot na Narodot", or The Voice of the
People). I warned that Israel is willing to wait 6 to 8 months for
Obama's "diplomacy" with regards to Iran's nuclear capability to show
some progress. If Iran remains recalcitrant, Israel plans to bomb two
facilities in Iran as it did in Iraq in 1981, I said. Refueling won't
be a problem, I assured the program's host, Slobodan Tomic: both Egypt
and Saudi-Arabia offered to help.
Israel has decided to go
ahead. Taking into account political, geopolitical, military
preparedness, and climatic conditions, there are two windows: between
July 21 and 24 and between August 6 and 8. Advance teams comprised of
Mossad agents and military personnel are already on the ground in Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, and Iraq (including in the Kurdish lands, adjacent to
Turkey).
A mock has been erected not far from Eilat (near the
Red Sea, opposite Aqaba). A defunct airbase in Biq'at Ha'Yareach (Moon
Vale) has been resurrected to accommodate Air Wing 10. In a country as
small and intimate as Israel, it is amazing that this has been kept a
secret: hundreds of recruits and reservists - from mechanics and pilots
to cooks and administrators - have been re-stationed there in the last
few months.
A mysterious facility also sprouted up not far from
Dimona's nuclear reactor, next to a university town called Sde Boker.
It is not known what is its role, though speculation is that it is
intended to shield the sensitive facility from an Iranian
counter-attack. Several batteries of aged Patriot missiles have been
recently replaced with brand new anti-missile rockets developed by
Israel.
Citizens are reporting dry runs in the skies of the
Negev, Israel's traditional air force training grounds and a desert
with some resemblance to Iranian conditions. Piecing these scant
testimonies together, it seems that the Israelis are concentrating
their effort on midair refueling and surgical strikes on multiple
targets.
Finally, HAGA (Hagana Ezrakhit), the Civilian Defense
Force, a part of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), has been instructed
to begin preparations for a possible Iranian counter-strike with
long-range conventional missiles. At this stage, Israel is not
contemplating chemical or biological warfare (though the distribution
of gas masks does seem to be part of the drill).
No one knows
for sure where will Israel strike. Wiping off all the widely
distributed and impregnable components of Iran's capability to enrich
uranium is close to impossible. The after-effects of even a limited air
attack may be devastating and not necessarily short-term, as the
Israelis are convinced. The price of oil is likely to spike and
radicals and extremists throughout the benighted region are bound to
leverage the attack to smear and taunt Israel and its allies but, then,
what else is new. The Arab countries are likely to breathe a sigh of
relief that the Iranian bully has been humbled.
The big question
mark is how will the Obama administration react to such a fait accompli
that flies in the face of the new President's stated policies. Will
Obama try to make an example out of Israel and harshly punish it - or
will he merely verbally lash it and proceed with business as usual?
Time will tell. Soon.
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