Over
the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new
oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more
powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe
and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global
balance of power—will be altered forever.
December 28 was a big day of ceremony in Russia. Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin pushed a button that transformed global oil
dynamics—especially for Asia and Europe. The button released thousands
of barrels of Siberian crude into a waiting Russian supertanker and
heralded the opening of Russia’s first modern Pacific-based oil export
facilities.
The multibillion-dollar, state-of-the-art oil terminal was a “great
New Year present for Russia,” Putin said during the inauguration.
The
strategic terminal, located in the city of Kozmino on the coast of the
Sea of Japan, is one of the “biggest projects in contemporary Russia”
he said, not only in “modern Russia,” but “the former Soviet Union
too.”
Putin has every right to be enthusiastic about his new port.
Kozmino will unlock a two-way gate through which Russia’s vast Siberian
oilfields will gush into Asia’s energy-hungry economies—and Chinese,
Korean and Japanese currency will flow into Russia.
If just the seven ships currently waiting to berth are all filled
during January, the port of Kozmino will instantly become Russia’s
third-most important oil outlet.
According to Reuters, the first oil transport
loads on January 15. In a symbolic move highlighting Russia’s warming
relationship with China, Hong Kong will receive the first shipment.
After that, Kozmino’s importance will exponentially grow over the
next year. Currently, all Siberian oil shipments into Kozmino are
delivered by train—but that will soon change. Phase one of the East
Siberian-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (espo)
was also completed during December. Phase two will soon connect the
Siberian fields directly to the new port. When phase two is finished in
2014, total exports could jump from the current rate of 250,000 barrels
per day to over 1 million.
Kozmino will transform into one of the largest oil centers in the
world—capable of handling 14 percent of total Russian oil exports. It
will be one of the most strategic geopolitical assets in Russia’s
arsenal.
Russia pumped more than 10 million barrels of oil per day during
November. With Saudi Arabian production falling, Russia is now the
world’s largest oil exporter.
Toss in Russia’s natural gas exports, and
Russia is the biggest energy superpower in the world, by far. That does
not even count Russia’s massive uranium resources and nuclear
expertise.
But here is why the new port in Kozmino could radically affect the
future of both Asia and Europe. For over a century, Russia’s entire
energy infrastructure has focused mainly on supplying Europe. That has
now changed forever!
The first and now-complete phase of the espo
pipeline, which connects Russia’s Siberian oil fields to within just a
few kilometers of China, is already destabilizing global oil dynamics
and shifting them in Russia’s direction. “espo is what political strategists might call a ‘game-changer,’” writes the Telegraph.
“It means that Russia will be able to send its oil either east or west—so it can drive a harder bargain when selling crude to Europe” (emphasis mine throughout).
Previously, when Russia has had pricing disputes with Europe,
Moscow had to play the embargo card with an obvious bluff. It had no
other alternative outlet for its oil. Without the Europeans, its oil
would sit in Samotlor and Tyanskoye, costing money instead of making
it. But now Moscow can turn off the tap to Europe and still pump in the
profits by opening the pipe wide to its energy-hungry Asian partners.
But Russia’s stranglehold on Europe is about to get even tighter—much tighter.
By 2012, the espo
pipeline will be twinned with a pipeline for natural gas exports so
Russian gas supplies can also flow east instead of west if necessary.
This development is truly scary to Europeans.
Moscow has already demonstrated that it isn’t afraid to
turn off Europe’s energy supplies when it feels it needs to. In the
middle of winter 2006, Russia shut off gas supplies to Germany, and
several other countries, in order to punish Ukraine. Since then, it has
repeatedly used the same method to strong-arm its former Eastern
European satellites back into accepting Russian dominance.
The message is clear: Russian oil and gas supplies are a weapon to be used—or not used—to freeze opponents into submission.
Europe, in a tenuous relationship with Russia to begin with,
desperately needs to secure another source of energy. Only one other
region in the world can supply the energy to warm and lubricate modern
Europe’s homes and industries: the Middle East. Countries like Germany,
which imports 90 percent of its oil, are now much more dependent on one
of the most volatile regions of the world for power supplies.
It is inevitable that Berlin will seek to expand its ties with
oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council members: the United Arab Emirates,
Qatar, Bahrain and especially Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest
petroleum producer. Europe has no choice but to become much more
intimately involved with the affairs of the Middle East—a region from
which 40 percent of its oil is currently derived.
It is therefore no surprise that Germany, the most dominant nation
in Europe, has made sure it has troops on the ground surrounding this
Middle Eastern “golden triangle” of energy production (Gulf Cooperation
Council members plus Iran and Iraq). On the seas, the European Union’s
naval presence is growing too. The European anti-piracy task force
operates in both the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden. Forty percent
of the world’s ocean-borne oil is shipped through the Gulf of Oman.
Europe is critically dependent on imported oil. And Germany knows
it must have a strong presence in the world’s most oil-rich region if
it is to secure its flow and the country’s future.
The Bible predicts that a major military clash will soon occur in
the Middle East—specifically between a European power, led by Germany,
and radical Islam, led by Iran.
Daniel 11:40-45 indicate that Iran will continue to push at this
European power until it finally responds in “whirlwind,”
blitzkrieg-type fashion. As we have explained for almost 20 years—and
has been borne out repeatedly in real-world events—the “king of the
south” spoken of in these verses is radical Islam under the leadership
of Iran. And as Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has written, a big part of Iran’s push against Europe will involve oil.
The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode at any time.
Syria dominates Lebanon and is stirring up trouble there. Iran is about
to create a nuclear weapon and has said it wants to wipe Israel off the
map.
It is test firing missiles that can strike European capitals.
Israel knows that the window to prevent Iran from getting the bomb is
closing. Hamas is preparing to violently take East Jerusalem as a
Palestinian capital. Israel is about to release 1,000 terrorists back
onto the streets in return for one captured Israeli soldier.
And to top it off, the world is in the midst of its worst
depression since the 1930s. Oil prices remain above $70 per barrel, and
the International Energy Agency has indicated that world oil production will now peak in 2020—10 years sooner than prior estimates.
Some analysts think the world has already reached peak oil production.
In this climate of global instability, Russia’s recent moves on the
world’s oil stage will be amplified in dramatic fashion. By unlocking
Siberia’s energy reserves, Russia is simultaneously binding Asia
together and lighting a fire under Europe. Watch for the development of
an Asian alliance between Russia, China and Japan. And watch for Europe’s next moves toward the Middle East. •